Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given doc [1][2][7]. 2. Core Views - Methanol: Coastal inventories are accumulating significantly, with high imports and current inventories. Domestic supply is expected to return, and traditional demand will enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to whether demand can support after the return of domestic supply. If inventories deteriorate significantly, methanol's valuation may decline [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers and coal - chemical enterprises are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. Basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China for 09 contracts. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating, with LD weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [7]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis of 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are seasonally overhauled in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Near - end export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide's profit is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC's comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Category Methanol - Price Data: From August 21 - 27, 2025,动力煤期货 price remained at 801. Coastal spot prices and domestic converted - to - futures prices showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2310 to 2260, and the Northwest converted - to - futures price increased from 2670 to 2683 and then decreased to 2663. Import profit and盘面MTO profit remained unchanged at 6 and - 1237 respectively. The daily change on August 27 showed a decrease in some prices such as a 15 - point drop in Jiangsu spot price and a 22 - point drop in South China spot price [2]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From August 21 - 27, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 830 on August 21 - 22 and then increased to 840. Prices of different types of polyethylene in different regions showed fluctuations. For example, the North China LL price increased from 7230 to 7270, and the East China LD price increased from 9500 to 9625. The daily change on August 27 showed a 40 - point drop in East China LL price and a 38 - point drop in the main futures price [7]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From August 21 - 27, 2025, Shandong propylene price increased from 6450 to 6540. Prices of different types of polypropylene in different regions also fluctuated. For example, the East China PP price increased from 6950 to 6985 and then decreased to 6950. The daily change on August 27 showed a 90 - point increase in Shandong propylene price and a 35 - point drop in East China PP price [7]. PVC - Price Data: From August 21 - 27, 2025, Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2200 to 2350, and Shandong caustic soda price increased from 867 to 887. Prices of different production methods and regions of PVC showed certain fluctuations. For example, the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased from 4850 to 4810. The daily change on August 27 showed a 30 - point drop in the calcium - carbide - based East China price [7].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250828
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-28 03:31