广发期货《黑色》日报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices maintained a weak downward trend. The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar stopped falling and rose, with the near - month rebar changing from weak to strong. The spread of hot - rolled coils continued to strengthen. The difference in the spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils was due to the expansion of the near - month spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar fell from a maximum of 290 to around 250 yuan. In August, the supply of rebar increased while demand decreased, especially the demand decline was obvious, affecting the weakening of steel prices, and the decline of rebar was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. Last week's data showed that the rebar production decreased again, and the apparent demand stopped falling and rebounded. It was expected that the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar would decline from a high level. From the perspective of total apparent demand, last week's demand data showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding, but it was still at an off - season level. There was an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering that steel demand did not stall and coking coal had not resumed production, it was expected that steel prices would remain in a high - level volatile pattern, but recently steel prices were weaker than iron ore and coking coal. It was recommended to wait and see in operation [1]. Iron Ore - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore declined from a high level on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume would increase periodically. On the demand side, last week, the profit margin of steel mills was at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and the molten iron output increased slightly at a high level and remained at around 2.4 million tons per day. This week, due to production restrictions in Tangshan, the molten iron output was expected to decline. From the data of five major steel products, it could be seen that recently there was a situation where the downstream apparent demand increased on a month - on - month basis, which supported steel prices. In terms of inventory, the port inventory decreased slightly, the outward shipment volume decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis. Looking forward, the molten iron output would decline slightly at a high level at the end of August. The market sentiment was over - drawn by the futures price increase on Monday, and currently the fundamentals were difficult to drive a sharp rise, so the price rose and then fell on Tuesday. After the parade, the molten iron output would increase as steel mills resumed production, which would support raw materials. Coupled with the relatively low port inventory compared with the same period last year and the high daily consumption of steel mills, the futures price still had a basis for rebound. In terms of strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and an iron ore 1 - 5 calendar spread long position was recommended [3]. Coke - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend, and the price fluctuated sharply recently. The spot price increase of coke was implemented, and the port trade quotation followed the increase. On the spot side, the seventh round of price increase by factories on the 22nd was officially implemented, with an increase of 50/55 yuan/ton. After the increase, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke in Lvliang, Shanxi reached 1340 yuan/ton, and the price of dry - quenched coke reached 1585 yuan/ton. An eighth - round price increase was proposed on the 25th but not implemented. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, the coking profit improved, and the coking enterprise's operation rate increased slightly. On the demand side, the blast furnace molten iron output fluctuated at a high level, and the downstream demand still had resilience. It was expected that the molten iron output would decline slightly in August due to production restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, the coking plant inventory began to accumulate, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The overall inventory was at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still had inventory replenishment demand, and the arrival of goods was delayed, so they finally accepted the seventh - round price increase of coke. Yesterday, the futures price fell. The futures price had a slight premium for wet - quenched coke but was at a discount to the dry - quenched coke warehouse - receipt cost, and the hedging space narrowed. Production restrictions in Tangshan were beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also had production - restriction requirements for coking. In the short term, the tight supply - demand situation would be maintained, but as the coking profit improved, the coke supply would gradually become loose. The futures price followed the decline of coking coal recently. In terms of strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and a long - iron - ore short - coke spread was recommended. Attention should be paid to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Coking Coal - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, and the price fluctuated sharply recently. The spot auction price was stable with a slight weakness, and the Mongolian coal quotation decreased slightly. On the spot side, the recent domestic coking coal auction weakened. After the price rose to a high level, the downstream purchasing willingness decreased, and some coal types declined. Currently, it was generally in a weak and stable operation. On the supply side, due to the recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdown and rectification, the coal mine operation rate decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the shipment slowed down. Coal mines sold at a discount, the market supply - demand situation eased, and some coal mines started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price followed the decline of futures. Due to the high price, downstream users were still cautious about replenishing inventory recently. On the demand side, the coking operation rate increased slightly, the downstream blast furnace molten iron output fluctuated at a high level, and the downstream inventory replenishment demand slowed down. Considering the production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills before the parade, the molten iron output would decline periodically at the end of August. In terms of inventory, the coal mines, ports, and steel mills accumulated inventory slightly, while the coal washing plants and coking plants decreased inventory slightly. The overall inventory decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market stabilized after a slight correction. As the near - month contract was approaching delivery, the warehouse - receipt delivery put some pressure on the 09 contract, and the far - month valuation still had a premium over the near - month Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt. The mine accident in Fujian's Datian and the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi triggered the expectation of production restrictions, driving the price to rise sharply on Monday, but the spot market was still in a weak and stable operation, and the previous rebound was given back in the past two trading days. In terms of strategy, it was recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and a long - iron - ore short - coking - coal spread was recommended. Attention should be paid to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3290, 3260, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a downward trend compared with the previous value. Rebar futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3214, 3111, and 3172 yuan/ton respectively, also showing a downward trend. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3380, 3360, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices declining. Hot - rolled coil futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3348, 3349, and 3341 yuan/ton respectively, showing a downward trend [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price was 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared with the previous value. The slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3345 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils was 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan; the profit of North China hot - rolled coils decreased by 12 yuan; the profit of South China hot - rolled coils was 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The profit of East China rebar was 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the profit of North China rebar was 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the profit of South China rebar was 53 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output was 240.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products was 878.1 tons, an increase of 6.4 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.7%. The rebar output was 214.7 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 2.6%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace output was 29.8 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons, with a decline rate of 1.4%; the converter output was 184 tons, a decrease of 5.4 tons, with a decline rate of 2.8%. The hot - rolled coil output was 325.2 tons, an increase of 9.7 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 3.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1441.0 tons, an increase of 25.1 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 1.8%. The rebar inventory was 607.0 tons, an increase of 19.8 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 3.4%. The hot - rolled coil inventory was 361.4 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 1.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 9.1 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 9.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products was 853.0 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 2.6%. The apparent demand of rebar was 194.8 tons, an increase of 4.9 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 2.6%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils was 321.3 tons, an increase compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 2.1% [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of cardiff, PB powder, bar - mixed powder, and Jinbuba powder were 798.9, 816.2, 828.7, and 826.3 yuan/ton respectively. The 01 - contract basis of cardiff, PB powder, bar - mixed powder, and Jinbuba powder increased to different extents. The 5 - 9 spread was - 43.0 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; the 9 - 1 spread was 21.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 22.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of cardiff, PB powder, bar - mixed powder, and Jinbuba powder at Rizhao Port were 879.0, 770.0, 807.0, and 725.0 yuan/ton respectively, with the price of Jinbuba powder showing a downward trend. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price was 101.7 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.3 dollars; the Platts 62% Fe price was 102.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.1 dollars [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 2393.3 tons, a decrease of 83.3 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 3.4%. The global shipment volume (weekly) was 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 90.8 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 2.7%. The national monthly import volume was 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 131.5 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 240.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The 45 - port daily average outward shipment volume (weekly) was 325.7 tons, a decrease of 8.9 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 2.7%. The national monthly pig iron output was 7079.7 tons, a decrease of 110.8 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 1.5%. The national monthly crude steel output was 7965.8 tons, a decrease of 352.6 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared with Monday) was 13798.68 tons, a decrease of 46.5 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 0.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 9065.5 tons, a decrease of 70.9 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 20.0 days, a decrease of 1.0 days compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 4.8% [3]. Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coke 09 and 01 contracts decreased, and the 09 and 01 bases increased. The 09 - 01 spread increased [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.0% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.0% [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory was 888.6 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 64.4 tons, an increase of 1.9 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 3.04%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 609.6 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 0.0%. The port inventory was 214.6 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons compared with the previous value, with a decline rate of 0.24% [6]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap was - 4.4 tons, remaining unchanged [6]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged. The coking coal 09 and 01 contracts decreased, and the 09 and 01 bases increased. The JM09 - JM01 spread decreased [6]. Supply - The raw coal output was 860.4 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.4%. The cleaned coal output was 442.7 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.8% [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons compared with the previous value, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The daily average output of