大越期货玻璃早报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there has been phased replenishment by downstream players, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventories. However, the sustainability of this reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly show a wide - range volatile trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract was 1175 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass was 1064 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The main basis was - 111 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.83% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1064 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - Glass production profit has declined, and the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down. The start - up rate and output have dropped to the lowest levels in the same historical period [2]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same historical period and showing signs of stabilization and recovery [22][24]. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the original glass inventory [28][4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.28% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [42]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production was expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was expected to be 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [43]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Negative Factors: The terminal real - estate demand remains weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4].