大越期货沪铜早报-20250828

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed, and the July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 79,560 with a basis of 370, indicating a premium over the futures, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 1,100 to 156,100 tons on August 27, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 81,698 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, which is bullish [2]. - It is expected that with inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, the contradictions between long and short are not prominent, and copper prices will fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The analysis of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions leads to a view of neutral to bullish factors, and an expected fluctuating copper price [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply - demand balance of 0.11 million tons [22]. Other Data - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. - The processing fee has declined [16].