Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate, closing with a doji candlestick, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with short positions decreasing more significantly. Overall, it was a contracting-volume fluctuation. As prices fluctuated, long positions exited for observation, while short positions exited even more actively. Therefore, the market may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the 60-day moving average, but the support from the moving average was weak. The short-term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the strength of long positions decreasing and that of short positions increasing, and the power of long and short positions began to stalemate. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 contract fluctuate and consolidate [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Futures Market Conditions on August 27 - Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes: The trading details of zinc futures contracts with different delivery months on August 27, including opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading amount, and open interest and its changes, are presented. For example, the 2510 contract had an opening price of 22310, a high of 22425, a low of 22290, and a closing price of 22310, with a trading volume of 114,993 lots and an open interest of 107,827 lots, showing a decrease of 891 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes: The prices and price changes of various zinc products in domestic main spot markets on August 27 are provided. For instance, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16,970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Aoshang was 22,290 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [4]. - National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics: From August 14 to August 25, the zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets showed an overall increasing trend. The total inventory on August 25 was 12.48 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons compared to August 18 and 0.74 million tons compared to August 21 [5]. - Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report: The warehouse receipt situation of zinc in different regions and warehouses on August 27 is detailed. The total zinc warehouse receipt was 36,213 tons, a decrease of 153 tons compared to the previous day, mainly due to the decrease of 153 tons in the warehouse receipt of Tianjin's Shanggang Yuncang Tianjin [6]. - LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics: The inventory situation of LME zinc in Singapore Port on August 27 is shown. The current inventory was 60,025 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons compared to the previous day, with a registered warehouse receipt of 41,775 tons and a cancelled warehouse receipt of 18,250 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 30.40% [8]. - National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary: The price information of zinc concentrate in major domestic cities on August 27 is provided, but the specific price data is not detailed in the given text [10]. - National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes: The prices and price changes of zinc ingots of different brands and manufacturers on August 27 are presented. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Hunan Weichuan Smelting was 22,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [14]. - Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025: In June 2025, the planned production value of refined zinc was 45.97 million tons, and the actual production was 47.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 11.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%, and an increase of 2.63% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 47.03 million tons [16]. - Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 27: The processing fees of zinc concentrate in different regions and their price ranges are provided. For example, in the area of Pailie, the processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 3700 - 3900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3800 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 75 - 95 US dollars/thousand tons, with an average of 85 US dollars/thousand tons [18]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table: The trading volume, long position, and short position rankings of zinc futures of different futures company members on August 27 are presented. For example, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with a trading volume of 36,331 lots, an increase of 10,965 lots compared to the previous day; in terms of long positions, CITIC Futures also ranked first with 12,844 lots, a decrease of 1,534 lots compared to the previous day; in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures still ranked first with 13,025 lots, an increase of 801 lots compared to the previous day [20]. Zinc Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Fundamentals: In April 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, the global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, and the consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, the global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which was considered bullish [2]. - Basis: The spot price was 22,290, and the basis was -20, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - Inventory: On August 27, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 5500 tons to 60,025 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc warehouse receipt decreased by 153 tons to 36,213 tons compared to the previous day, which was considered bullish [2]. - Market Trend: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average was downward, which was considered bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short positions decreased, which was considered bearish [2]. - Market Expectation: The LME inventory and warehouse receipt continued to decrease, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt remained at a high level. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 contract will fluctuate and consolidate [2].
沪锌期货早报-20250828
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-28 07:41