大越期货甲醇早报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - China plans to address the over - capacity in the petrochemical industry through industrial restructuring, which provides short - term policy support for market sentiment. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is expected that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are plans to restart some methanol plants in late August, and high port inventories will have a certain restraining effect. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2601 trading in the range of 2350 - 2400 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The policy of addressing over - capacity in the petrochemical industry is favorable in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, while the port market is affected by weak demand and high inventories. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week [4]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: Some previously shut - down plants are restarting, there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE production has significantly declined, coal - based methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot Market: The price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim region is 671 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2250 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China is 261 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2299 yuan/ton. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian also have corresponding changes [8]. - Futures Market: The futures closing price is 2372 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants is 10,366, a decrease of 100 compared to the previous period [8]. - Spread Structure: The basis in Jiangsu is - 107, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. There are also corresponding changes in import spreads and regional spreads [8]. - Operating Rate: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have also changed [8]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [4]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and temporary shutdowns due to various reasons [56]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have different operating conditions. Some plants in other countries are also in normal operation or under maintenance [57]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, and Central China are in normal operation, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production increases or shutdowns [58].