大越期货PVC期货早报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week, and the number of expected maintenance next week is expected to decrease, with a slight increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, but the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4987. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [9][14] - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - On August 27, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. [11] - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide factory warehouse was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene factory warehouse was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises in the warehouse were 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, which is neutral. [11] - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish. [11] - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. [11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply Side: In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. The supply pressure decreased this week. The downstream overall operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. The fundamentals are neutral. [5][7] - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2737.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure. [8] - Expectation: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. [9] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Provides detailed data on PVC prices, basis, inventory, production, profit, and other aspects, including price changes of different regions and varieties, month - to - month changes in inventory, and profit changes in different production methods. [15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - Displays the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract. [18] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - Presents the historical trend chart of the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025. [24] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - Lancoke: Displays the historical data of Lancoke medium - grade material price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output. [27] - Calcium Carbide: Displays the historical data of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream price, Wuhai weekly calcium carbide cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and output. [30] - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: Displays the historical data of liquid chlorine price, output, raw salt price, and monthly output. [32] - Caustic Soda: Displays the historical data of 32% caustic soda price in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises, as well as data on caustic soda apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory. [35] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - Displays the historical data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly output of sample enterprises. [40] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Displays the historical data of PVC daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin). Also includes data on paste resin cost - profit, output, and consumption, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment. [45] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Displays the historical data of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse, ethylene factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [58] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Displays the historical data of vinyl chloride import volume, dichloroethane import volume, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread. [60] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Displays the monthly supply - demand trend of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import. [63]