大越期货白糖早报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of white sugar 01 is expected to oscillate and decline. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out-of-quota imported sugar. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and short-term attention should be paid to whether there is support at the 5600 mark [5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Conab estimates that the sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68,500 tons. The situation is neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6020, and the basis for contract 01 is 400, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is a bullish factor [6]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include the increase in global sugar production and the supply surplus in the new season. The price of foreign sugar is below 17 cents per pound, and the import profit window is open, increasing import pressure [7]. - Medium-term View: The domestic sugar spot sales average price is close to 6000. The domestic sugar supply and demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the medium- and long-term gap is decreasing. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out-of-quota import tariff on raw sugar. In the short term, there are many imports of foreign sugar [9]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecast: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool forecasts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA forecasts 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow forecasts 7.8 million tons, and Datagro forecasts 2.58 million tons [9][35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: The sugarcane planting area, yield per unit area, and sugar production in China are expected to remain stable in the 2025/26 season. The import volume is expected to be 5 million tons, and the consumption volume is expected to be 15.9 million tons. The balance change is expected to be 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with the net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].