工业硅期货早报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased, with high inventory and weakening cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 in the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, and demand is showing a continuous recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 in the 2511 contract [7][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Supply last week was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase; demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease. Silicon inventory is high, organic silicon inventory is low, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. Xinjiang's 553 production has a loss, and cost support is weakening [6]. - Basis: On August 27, the spot price in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 575 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, major port inventory was flat, and sample enterprise inventory increased [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Supply production is increasing and near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 [6]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Last week's production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the predicted August production is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase. Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production and inventory vary, and the industry average cost is 35,590 yuan/ton with a profit of 12,410 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Basis: On August 27, the N - type dense material price was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historical high [10]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [10]. - Expectation: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is recovering, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon Market Overview: Presents price changes of various contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon [16]. - Polysilicon Market Overview: Shows price changes of various contracts, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon [18]. - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon basis and the spread between 421 and 553 grades [20]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Illustrates the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses [24]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [25]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Presents the cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [31]. - Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Displays the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [33]. - Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 to 2025 [36]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers DMC price, production, downstream price, import - export, and inventory trends [39][41][45]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [48][51][53]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Covers cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories in the polysilicon market [58][64][67][70][73]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm): Displays the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [76]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: Shows trends in new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [77].