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大越期货原油早报-20250828
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-28 08:01

Report Overview - Report Date: August 28, 2025 - Report Title: Crude Oil Morning Report - Research Institution: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Analyst: Jin Zebin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight EIA inventory data showed a slightly larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories. Geopolitically, the UK, France, and Germany may initiate the UN procedure to restore sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will make commitments on its nuclear program within 30 days to delay substantial action. Russia extended its gasoline and fuel export ban, which partially boosted oil prices. However, the domestic market is currently significantly weaker than the international market, highlighting market concerns about demand. Short-term oil prices are expected to trade in a low-range oscillation. Short-term trading range is between 478 - 485, and long-term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: US Treasury Secretary Besent said trade negotiations with China are "all on the table" and will meet with Chinese counterparts again at the end of October or early November. Russia extended its gasoline export ban until September 30, with restrictions on fuel manufacturers to be lifted on October 1 and those on non - manufacturers to last until October 31. The "Friendship" oil pipeline in Hungary is expected to resume oil supply as early as August 27 or 28, though it may not operate at full capacity [3]. - Basis: On August 27, the spot price of Oman crude was $69.43 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $68.88 per barrel. The basis was 30.96 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - Inventory: US API crude inventory for the week ending August 22 decreased by 974,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.725 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period decreased by 2.392 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.863 million barrels. Cushing region inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels in the week ending August 22, compared to an increase of 419,000 barrels in the previous week. As of August 27, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels [3]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - Main Position: As of August 19, the main long positions in WTI crude increased, while those in Brent crude decreased [3]. - Expectation: Short - term oil prices are expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. Short - term trading range is between 478 - 485, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - European Powers and Iran: To restart diplomatic negotiations on the nuclear program before losing the ability to restore sanctions in mid - October, the UK, France, and Germany met with Iran on Tuesday. Although there is room for further diplomatic consultations in the coming weeks, the Tuesday meeting did not obtain specific enough commitments from Iran. The E3 has decided to initiate the UN Security Council's "rapid restoration of sanctions" mechanism, which may be implemented as early as Thursday. Iran has warned of a "tough response" if sanctions are restored [5]. - India and Russian Oil: Igor Isaev, the head of the Mind Money analysis center, believes that it is unlikely for India to completely reject Russian oil due to the attractive price of Urals crude and India's strategic demand for energy resources. However, India may balance geopolitics and economics, potentially limiting the purchase volume of Urals crude or diversifying energy supplies [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - Bullish Factors: Not clearly stated in the content - Bearish Factors: Not clearly stated in the content - Market Drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. - Risk Points: Disunity within OPEC+ leading to increased production, and escalation of war risks [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude decreased by $0.45 to $67.22, a decline of 0.66%. WTI crude increased by $0.14 to $63.66, an increase of 0.22%. SC crude increased by 4.30 to 491.0, an increase of 0.88%. Oman crude increased by $0.26 to $69.98, an increase of 0.37% [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $0.19 to $68.48, an increase of 0.28%. WTI increased by $0.14 to $63.66, an increase of 0.22%. Oman crude in the Asia - Pacific region increased by $0.30 to $70.08, an increase of 0.43%. Shengli crude increased by $0.42 to $65.51, an increase of 0.65%. Dubai crude increased by $0.01 to $69.95, an increase of 0.01% [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventory data for different time periods are provided, showing trends of inventory changes [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Fund Net Long Position: As of August 19, the net long position was 120,209, an increase of 3,467 [17]. - Brent Crude Fund Net Long Position: As of August 19, the net long position was 182,695, a decrease of 23,852 [19].