大越期货天胶早报-20250828

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Industry: Natural rubber [4] - Overall evaluation: Neutral with short - term long trading expectation [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply is increasing, domestic inventory is starting to rise, and tire operating rate is at a high level, with the market having support below, suggesting short - term long trading [4] Group 3: According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental situation: Supply increases, spot is strong, domestic inventory rises, tire operating rate is high, overall neutral [4] - Basis: Spot price is 14,900, basis is - 860, bearish [4] - Inventory: Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, neutral [4] - Market trend: The 20 - day line is flat, and the price is above the 20 - day line, bullish [4] - Main positions: Main net short positions with an increase in short positions, bearish [4] - Expectation: The market has support below, short - term long trading [4] 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on August 27 [8] 2.2 Inventory - Exchange inventory has changed slightly recently [14] - Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly recently [17] 2.3 Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] 2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month [29] - Tire industry exports have rebounded [32] 2.5 Basis - The basis strengthened on August 27 [35] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.1 Bullish Factors - High downstream consumption [6] - Spot price is resistant to decline [6] - Anti - involution in the domestic market [6] 3.2 Bearish Factors - Supply increase [6] - Bearish domestic economic indicators [6]