沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2510, it will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2510, it will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - Futures Prices: On August 27, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,760 (up 1390 from the previous day), the LME Nickel was 15,190 (down 90), the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,850 (up 10). The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,150 (up 1700), 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,400 (up 1650), 1 imported nickel was 122,300 (up 1750), and nickel beans were 124,350 (up 1750). Cold - rolled stainless steel prices in different regions remained unchanged [12]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of August 22, the SHFE nickel inventory was 26,943 tons, with futures inventory at 22,552 tons (a decrease of 19 tons and an increase of 411 tons respectively). On August 27, LME nickel inventory was 209,220 (up 72), SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 22,025 (down 61), and the total inventory was 231,245 (up 11) [14][15]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On August 22, the Wuxi inventory was 61,460 tons, the Foshan inventory was 315,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,091,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons). The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons (a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons). On August 27, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 100,851 (down 175) [19][20]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On August 27, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. High - nickel ferronickel was 942 yuan/nickel point (up 5.5), and low - nickel ferronickel was 3440 yuan/ton (up 20) [23]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional cost was 13,041, the scrap steel production cost was 13,602, and the low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 16,747 [25]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 122,341 yuan/ton [28]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: There is an expectation of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, and there are anti - involution policies. The cost line has support at 120,000 [7]. - Negative Factors: Domestic production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year [7].