大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent device changes are frequent, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the short - term spot price is expected to follow the trend of oscillation. However, the current processing margin still needs improvement. Attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of goods at ports is scarce in late August, and the port inventory will continue to decline in the next two weeks. From early September, the arrival of foreign goods will increase. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening under the resonance of low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season. But there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Follow - up attention should be paid to polyester load and production and sales changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the content 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: The PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened slightly. There were transactions at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 01 contract this week and next week, and individual transactions at 09 + 20. The price negotiation range was around 4800 - 4875. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 18 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4837, the basis of the 01 contract is 13, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.71 days, an increase of 0.05 days compared with the previous period, showing a bearish situation [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [6]. - Main Position: The net position is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [6]. - Expectation: The short - term PTA spot price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent device changes in the upstream and downstream [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price oscillated and adjusted. The market negotiation was average. In the morning, driven by the unexpected news of the Singapore device, the futures price rose briefly, and the sellers were reluctant to sell, and the basis strengthened. In the afternoon, as the commodity atmosphere weakened, the ethylene glycol futures price oscillated and declined, but the basis continued to be strong. The high - level spot basis was traded at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The foreign market negotiation was light, and the offer was scarce. The price in the morning was high, and the buying was limited. In the afternoon, as the commodity atmosphere declined, the foreign price fell, and individual transactions were around 534 US dollars/ton [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4550, the basis of the 01 contract is 69, and the futures price is at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 50.05 tons, a decrease of 2.69 tons compared with the previous period, showing a bullish situation [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish situation [7]. - Main Position: The main net position is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Expectation: The port inventory will continue to decline in the next two weeks. From early September, the arrival of foreign goods will increase. The short - term trend is mainly oscillating and strengthening, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Pay attention to polyester load and production and sales changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Likely Positive Factors: In August, some PTA device maintenance plans are expected to improve supply - demand. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has some expectations for demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device has stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device has stopped unexpectedly [10]. - Likely Negative Factors: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere is still cautious [9]. - Current Main Logic and Risk Points: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and the upward resistance level of the futures price should be noted during the rebound [9]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and ending inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.5. Price - related Charts - Include charts of bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, spot spreads, and inventory analysis, etc., with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][27][44][63][69]. 3.6. Profit - related Charts - Include charts of PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), with data sources from Wind, Mysteel [63][69].