大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250828

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with factors such as cost support and anti - involution policy as positives, while weak demand is a negative. For PP, the fundamentals are also neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policy as positives and weak demand as a negative [4][6][8][9] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. July exports were $321.78 billion, up 7.2% year - on - year. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is below expectations, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7310 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 54, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with anti - involution policy expectations rising again, weak agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support and anti - involution policy are positive factors; weak demand is a negative factor [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in macro data. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7050 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 29, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, neutral [8] - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), neutral [8] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [8] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [8] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with anti - involution policy expectations rising again, slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory [8] - Likely Factors: Cost support and anti - involution policy are positive factors; weak demand is a negative factor [9] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7310 (-40), the 01 contract price is 7364 (-38), the basis is - 54 (-2), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), and the social inventory is 562,000 tons (+6,000) [11] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 7050 (+0), the 01 contract price is 7021 (-25), the basis is 29 (+25), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), and the social inventory is 260,000 tons (-1,000) [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18] Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [7][10] - Risk Points: Sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10]