大越期货纯碱早报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass declines, and terminal demand weakens. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,307 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 107 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][36]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increase, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The fundamentals of soda ash feature strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launching plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,311 | 1,307 | - 0.31% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 111 | - 107 | - 3.60% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. Soda Ash Production - Production Profit: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline of the operating rate is postponed. The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - Production Capacity Changes: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with actual production - launching of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is 75.34% and stable. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [27][33]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Production (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [37]