大越期货贵金属早报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing, gold and silver prices have risen. The uncertainty over Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor persists, but the high expectation of Fed easing continues to support the prices of gold and silver. The premium of Shanghai gold has continued to converge, while the premium of Shanghai silver has remained stable. The dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, providing support for gold and silver prices [4][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose slightly, European major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. bond yields declined across the board, the 10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 2.72 basis points to 4.234%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.04% to 98.19, the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1523, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.55% to $3451.80 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the Fed's easing expectation is high, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.22% to $38.69 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 3.14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 35, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 38165 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The Bank of Korea announces its interest rate decision; the 2025 Digital Expo, the 9th Asia - Pacific Biomedical Cooperation Summit, the 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo, the 2025 SUPCON Technology New Product Release and Industrial AI Innovation Development Conference, and the 2025 China Charging Facilities Industry Operation and Service Development Conference - Suzhou Meeting open; the U.S. imposes an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50% [15]. - 09:30: Bank of Japan审议委员Nakagawa Junko speaks in Yamaguchi Prefecture [15]. - 16:00: ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn speaks [15]. - 19:30: The ECB releases the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting [15]. - 20:30: The U.S. releases the revised Q2 GDP and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 [15]. - 22:00: The U.S. releases the July pending home sales index [15]. - 06:00 the next day: Fed Governor Christopher Waller talks about monetary policy at the Miami Economic Club [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic behind the price movement is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new U.S. government will continue, and the sentiment for gold is high, making it prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - Silver: Silver prices generally follow gold prices. The concern over tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.79% to 613,969, the short position decreased by 1.44% to 465,492, and the net position decreased by 2.89% to 148,477 [30]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 3.45% to 1,045,510, the short position decreased by 2.63% to 967,544, and the net position decreased by 12.63% to 77,966 [33]. - ETF Positions: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly, while the position of silver ETF decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai gold, COMEX gold, Shanghai silver, and COMEX silver all increased slightly. COMEX gold warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and Shanghai silver warehouse receipts were higher than the same period last year [39][40][42].