大越期货菜粕早报-20250828

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2480 and 2540. The market is affected by the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, with short - term demand in the peak season and low inventory supporting the price. After the National Day, demand may enter the off - season, and there are uncertainties in China - Canada trade. The short - term trend is volatile and slightly stronger [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side has a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production, and global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is 59, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. The rapeseed meal futures have risen and then fallen, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has been weakly volatile [9][18][20]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 21,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% from last week's 25,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 25% compared with 28,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish. The inventory of imported rapeseed at oil mills has fallen to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory has slightly decreased. The import volume of imported rapeseed in August was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. The amount of rapeseed crushed by oil mills has increased slightly [9][23][25]. - Aquaculture Data: Aquaculture fish prices have fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are also provided in the report [35]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2480 and 2540. The short - term trend is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [9].