大越期货沥青期货早报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening in the short - term. It is predicted that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3492 [7][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, positive basis, inventory trends (social and port inventories decreasing), and net long positions of the main contract with a reduction in long positions. Negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and a strengthening expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [7][8][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - Demand Side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The processing loss of asphalt increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - Basis: On August 27, the spot price in Shandong is 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 49 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 1,292,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The in - factory inventory is 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports is 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - factory inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - Market: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closes below the MA20 [8]. - Main Contract Positions: The main contract has a net long position, with a reduction in long positions [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report presents the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [36][37]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][41]. - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report presents the historical inventory trend of domestic diluted asphalt at ports from 2021 to 2025 [45][46]. - Production Volume: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [48][50]. - Price of Marey Crude Oil and Monthly Production of Venezuelan Crude Oil: The report presents the historical trends of the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - Production of Local Refinery Asphalt: The report shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The report presents the historical capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The report shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report presents the historical trends of the total, social, and in - factory exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [62][63][64]. - Social and In - Factory Inventories: The report shows the historical trends of social and in - factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - In - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: The report presents the historical trend of the in - factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - Import and Export Analysis: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [72][73][76]. - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Production: The report presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - Downstream Demand: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [84][85][86][88][89]. - Asphalt Construction Rate: The report shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [93][94][96][97][99][100][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104][105].