Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean market in the US is affected by the expected high - yield, technical adjustment, and factors such as China - US tariff negotiations and weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by factors like import volume, inventory, and price differentials. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3020 and 3080, and the soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000 [8][10]. - The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is affected by the relative positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, showing a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend. The soybean meal market will return to the range - oscillating pattern due to factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No specific content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive data in the US agricultural report and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. Future trends depend on factors such as soybean growth and harvest in the US, import volume of soybeans, and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is short - term oscillating and strengthening. The uncertain factors such as the decline in domestic pig - breeding profit and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations lead to the return of the soybean meal market to the range - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal - Positive Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Negative Factors: High import volume of domestic soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybeans - Positive Factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [14]. - Negative Factors: Continuous expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal - Spot price in East China is 2970, with a basis of - 75, showing a discount to futures [8]. - Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 105330 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans - Spot price is 4200, with a basis of 265, showing a premium to futures [10]. - Oil - mill soybean inventory is 682530 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main players decreased, but the capital inflow was positive [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main players increased, and the capital inflow was positive [10]. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Global: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and other indicators of global soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio also varied, ranging from 17.69% in 2015 to 23.05% in 2018 [31]. - Domestic: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, and other indicators of domestic soybeans also showed fluctuations. The inventory - to - consumption ratio ranged from 18.41% in 2016 to 23.79% in 2020 [32]. Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress - Argentina (2023/24): The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina in 2023/24 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [33]. - US (2024): The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US in 2024 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the sowing progress reached 100% on June 30, and the harvesting progress reached 96% on October 13 [34][37]. - Brazil (2024/25): The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Brazil in 2024/25 showed a certain comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average. For example, the planting progress reached 98.5% on January 5, and the harvesting progress reached 97.7% on May 4 [38][39]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From February to August 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports showed changes in indicators such as harvest area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans. For example, the harvest area decreased from 8610 in February to 8090 in August [41]. Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [42]. - The import volume of domestic soybeans reached a high level in August and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly [45]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, indicating a short - term decrease in stocking demand [47]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit of imported soybeans in the futures market worsened [51]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then declined, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the country increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit recently declined [53][55][57][59].
大越期货豆粕早报-20250828
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-28 09:24