大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250828

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. July's import volume was 13,845 tons, and next month's predicted import is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand - last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8]. - Cost - the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [9]. - Overall situation - due to capacity mismatch, supply is stronger than demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: last week's production decreased week - on - week but was higher than the historical average. July's production and import volume are predicted to increase next month. - Demand: last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate enterprises decreased, while that of ternary material enterprises increased. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. - Cost: the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average. - Expected range: lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [8][9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Data: - Lithium ore prices: the price of 6% lithium spodumene is $920/ton, flat week - on - week; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate is 1,970 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. - Lithium salt prices: the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,600 yuan/ton, a 0.12% week - on - week decrease; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,300 yuan/ton, a 0.13% week - on - week decrease. - Other prices: the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 56,400 yuan/ton, a 1.08% week - on - week increase [14]. - Supply - Side Data: - Lithium ore: the monthly production of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the import volume is also expected to increase significantly. - Lithium carbonate: the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The import volume decreased month - on - month. - Lithium hydroxide: the weekly production of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The export volume increased month - on - month [19]. - Demand - Side Data: - Lithium battery: the monthly output of lithium batteries increased month - on - month, and the demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is expected to increase. - New energy vehicles: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: the price of lithium ore has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Production: the production of domestic lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica has increased year - on - year. - Import: the import volume of lithium ore has increased year - on - year, mainly from Australia. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance has been in a state of shortage in recent years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased year - on - year, mainly from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials. - Import: the import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased month - on - month, mainly from Chile. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly from smelting and causticizing. - Export: the export volume of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly to overseas markets. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium hydroxide supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Lithium spodumene: the production cost of lithium spodumene has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Lithium mica: the production cost of lithium mica is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Lithium carbonate import: the import profit of lithium carbonate has decreased week - on - week. - Other aspects: the cost and profit of other lithium compounds, such as lithium hydroxide and recycled lithium carbonate, also show different trends [46]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the inventory of downstream enterprises increasing. - Lithium hydroxide: the inventory of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: the price of lithium batteries has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Output: the monthly output of lithium batteries has increased year - on - year, mainly for power batteries and energy - storage batteries. - Demand: the demand for lithium batteries is expected to increase in the future, driven by the development of new energy vehicles and energy - storage industries [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: the price of ternary precursors has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary precursors has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary precursor supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: the price of ternary materials has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary materials has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary material supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [69]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price: the price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of phosphoric acid iron has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. The production cost of phosphoric acid iron lithium is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic phosphoric acid iron/phosphoric acid iron lithium supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production and sales: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased. - Retail - wholesale ratio: the retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year. - Inventory: the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have increased year - on - year [80].