大越期货燃料油早报-20250828

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but individual factors are rated as follows: fundamental analysis is neutral [3]; basis analysis is bullish [3]; inventory analysis is bearish [3]; market trend analysis is neutral [3]; and main position analysis is bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure and refining profit strengthened on August 27 due to stable downstream marine fuel demand, but there are concerns about raw material demand shortage before the autumn refinery maintenance season and weakening power generation demand after summer, which may exacerbate regional supply surplus unless refueling activities pick up before year - end holidays. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month. Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level, the domestic market was weak, and the downstream ship refueling market was weak, suppressing prices. In the short term, fuel oil will operate at a low level. The FU2510 will operate in the range of 2810 - 2850, and the LU2511 will operate in the range of 3490 - 3530 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The FU2510 is expected to operate in the range of 2810 - 2850, and the LU2511 in the range of 3490 - 3530. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure and refining profit strengthened on August 27, but there are supply - related concerns. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month. Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level, and the domestic market was weak [3] 2. Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors: potential escalation of sanctions against Russia [4] - Bearish factors: the optimism of the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4] - Market drivers: the supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamental: Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market strengthened on August 27 due to downstream demand, but there are concerns about supply surplus. The expected arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in Singapore in September will decline month - on - month; neutral [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 396.54 dollars/ton with a basis of 101 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is 495.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 145 yuan/ton, spot premium over futures; bullish [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 20 was 2391.9 million barrels, an increase of 128 million barrels; bearish [3] - Market trend: prices are above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat; neutral [3] - Main position: high - sulfur main position is short, changing from long to short; low - sulfur main position is short, with short positions decreasing; bearish [3] 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, but shows the price changes of the FU and LU main contracts. The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2890 to 2829, a decrease of 61 or 2.11%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3537 to 3489, a decrease of 48 or 1.36%. The FU basis increased from 56 to 101, an increase of 45 or 80.58%. The LU basis increased from 104 to 145, an increase of 42 or 40.12% [5] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 11 to August 20 shows fluctuations, with an inventory of 2391.9 million barrels in the week of August 20, an increase of 128 million barrels compared to the previous period [8]