农产品早报-20250829

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is from the Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center, dated August 29, 2025 [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Analysis Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, corn prices in Changchun remained at 2230, while in Jinzhou it increased by 20, in Weifang it was unchanged, and in Shekou it increased by 10. Starch prices in Weifang decreased by 22, and the processing profit remained unchanged [3] Market Analysis - Corn: In the short - term, new - season corn is about to be on the market, causing a weakening of port spot prices and a decline in futures prices. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. In the long - term, with an increase in new - season production and a decline in cost, prices are expected to decline under pressure [4] - Starch: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices, and high inventory continues to pressure prices. In the long - term, high inventory and expected lower raw material costs lead to a bearish view on starch prices [4] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 10, 10, and 15 respectively. The basis increased by 8, and the import profit increased by 4, while the number of warrants decreased by 367 [5] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's high - pressure crushing period. In China, with the arrival of imported sugar and a decrease in processed sugar prices, the futures prices face upward pressure [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5, and the number of warrants + forecasts decreased by 139. The 32S spinning profit increased by 5 [8] Market Analysis - Cotton has entered a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. If there are no major macro - risk events, the low in April can be regarded as the long - term bottom, and the downside space for cotton prices is limited [8] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, egg prices in Hebei decreased by 0.05, in Liaoning decreased by 0.04, and the basis increased by 43. The prices of substitute products remained relatively stable [15] Market Analysis - Egg prices rebounded from a low level in July due to supply and demand factors. However, in August, due to sufficient inventory in food factories and weakening demand, prices declined. Attention should be paid to the culling rhythm of old hens and the出库 of cold - stored eggs [16] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 7300. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis decreased by 138, 125, and 136 respectively [18][19] Market Analysis - New - season apples are in the growth stage. The yield in the western region may increase, while Shandong may have a 20% reduction. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a five - year low. Attention should be paid to the final yield determination [19] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, pig prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, Anhui Hefei, and Jiangsu Nantong were relatively stable, and the basis increased by 155 [19] Market Analysis - There are policy - related expectations for a turning point in pig production capacity in the long - term, but mid - term supply pressure still exists. At the end of the month, supply may decrease, and consumption may improve. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [19]