芳烃橡胶早报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, with increased unexpected TA maintenance, rising polyester开工, and returning PX supply, the near - term supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to opportunities to expand processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - For MEG, although the EG开工 has risen to a relatively high level, port inventories are expected to remain low in the short term. The far - month is expected to accumulate inventory, and it is regarded as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [9]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the destocking of polyester yarn end products accelerates, restocking demand emerges. With high - level staple fiber开工 and continued destocking, attention should be paid to opportunities to expand processing fees at low prices [9]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a non - high level without seasonal destocking, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Data Changes: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the PTA spot price decreased by 60 yuan, and the polyester profit increased by 35 yuan. The TA basis decreased by 3, and the daily average sales ratio increased by 0.25. The PTA spot transaction average daily basis for 2509 increased by 25 [2]. - Device Changes: Sanfangxiang's 1.2 - million - ton device and Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton device are under maintenance [3]. - Market Situation: Near - end TA unexpected maintenance increases, resulting in a significant decline in开工. Polyester负荷 continues to rise, inventory decreases month - on - month, the basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve. PX domestic开工 rises slightly, overseas devices restart, and开工 rebounds significantly. The PXN strengthens month - on - month, the disproportionation benefit weakens, and the isomerization benefit reaches a high level. The US - Asia aromatics transfer volume is relatively small [3]. MEG - Data Changes: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 3 US dollars, the inner - market price decreased by 26 yuan, and the coal - based profit decreased by 26 yuan. The MEG basis for 01 increased by 62 [9]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device restarts, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device is under maintenance [9]. - Market Situation: Near - end domestic oil - based devices restart, coal - based开工 declines slightly, and overall负荷 rebounds. Weekly arrivals decline while shipments remain stable, leading to a decrease in port inventory. Downstream restocking levels remain stable, the basis remains strong, and the benefit ratio remains basically stable month - on - month [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Data Changes: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 25 yuan, and the short - fiber profit increased by 25 yuan [9]. - Device Changes: Not mentioned in the content - Market Situation: Near - end Chuzhou Xingbang and Ningbo Zhuocheng increase production, and开工 rebounds slightly to 91.9%. Sales remain basically stable, and inventory decreases month - on - month. On the demand side, the polyester yarn end开工 rises, raw material restocking increases, and finished - product inventory continues to decrease, with weak benefits [9]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Data Changes: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased by 10 US dollars, and the RU main contract price increased by 225 yuan [9]. - Device Changes: Not mentioned in the content - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory remains stable at a non - high level without seasonal destocking, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping [9]. Styrene - Data Changes: From August 22 to 28, 2025, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, and the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 55 yuan [12]. - Device Changes: Not mentioned in the content - Market Situation: Not mentioned in the content