Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 20730 and a basis of - 20, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory situation is neutral as the上期所 aluminum inventory decreased by 8047 tons to 124605 tons last week. The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward. The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive the transformation of the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bulls and bears are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of aluminum has multiple aspects: fundamental analysis is neutral; basis analysis is neutral; inventory analysis is neutral; market trend analysis is bullish; main position analysis is bullish; and the expected price movement is oscillating due to mixed factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多 factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; and there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - 利空 factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. Daily Summary - Spot prices: In Shanghai, the price was 70770 with a decline of 375; in Nanchu, it was 70690 with a decline of 450; and the Yangtze River price was 70870 with a decline of 400 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons; SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it was 15 million tons [20].
大越期货沪铝早报-20250829
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-29 01:51