Information Summary - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton market is experiencing a period of oscillatory adjustment. The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 15,336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 northern Xinjiang local machine-picked cotton and southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine-picked cotton are provided. The cotton yarn market has a stable trading volume, with conventional yarns being the most popular, and some low-count yarns also seeing increased sales. However, spinning mills are still operating at limited capacity, and overall market confidence is weak. The cotton fabric market has not seen significant changes, with sales remaining slow and orders for weaving factories having limited recovery [7]. - In the overseas market, the weekly export sales data for US cotton has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton-growing areas has increased, the good and excellent rate has slightly decreased week-on-week, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level. Therefore, the short-term trend of the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern. In the domestic market, the cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll-opening and flocculation stage, and the market is waiting for guidance from the new cotton purchase. Recently, there have been rumors that a large amount of new cotton has been pre-sold, and the expectation of a rush to purchase new cotton has increased. However, the expected stable increase in production also brings pressure on the long-term market. On the demand side, the inventory of cotton yarn products continues to decline slightly, and the sales of fabric factories are not as good as those of yarn factories. The market is still observing the performance of the traditional peak season. Overall, due to limited changes in the fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Domestic Market: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot price of cotton has decreased slightly, and the basis quotes for different regions are provided. The cotton yarn market has a stable trading volume, with conventional yarns being the most popular, and some low-count yarns also seeing increased sales. However, spinning mills are still operating at limited capacity, and overall market confidence is weak. The cotton fabric market has not seen significant changes, with sales remaining slow and orders for weaving factories having limited recovery [7]. - Overseas Market: The weekly export sales data for US cotton has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton-growing areas has increased, the good and excellent rate has slightly decreased week-on-week, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level. Therefore, the short-term trend of the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - Market Outlook: The cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll-opening and flocculation stage, and the market is waiting for guidance from the new cotton purchase. Recently, there have been rumors that a large amount of new cotton has been pre-sold, and the expectation of a rush to purchase new cotton has increased. However, the expected stable increase in production also brings pressure on the long-term market. On the demand side, the inventory of cotton yarn products continues to decline slightly, and the sales of fabric factories are not as good as those of yarn factories. The market is still observing the performance of the traditional peak season. Overall, due to limited changes in the fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3.2. Industry News - In Hutubi County, Xinjiang, 869,000 mu of cotton is gradually flocculating. The county's 24 cotton purchase and processing enterprises have almost completed the overhaul of their production equipment, which is expected to finish in mid-September. The funds and personnel for cotton purchase are also ready, and the purchase of new cotton is expected to start around September 20. During the purchase period, the local development and reform commission will strengthen supervision to ensure the interests of cotton farmers [9]. 3.3. Data Overview The report provides various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19][28].
建信期货棉花日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-29 01:49