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大越期货尿素早报-20250829
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-29 02:02
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which had previously risen due to rumors of increased export expectations, has seen a market sentiment decline as actual export demand has not significantly improved. The report predicts that the UR contract will trend sideways today [4]. - The main factors influencing the market are the strong international urea prices and weak domestic demand, with the key risk being changes in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been oscillating downward. The current daily production and operating rate remain high, and inventory is at a high level overall. Industrial demand, such as for compound fertilizers and melamine, is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of urea in China exceeds demand, export profits have declined but remain strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 77, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall supply in China exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will trend sideways today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factor is the strong international prices; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market Data - Spot Market: The spot price of the delivery product is 1830 (+20), Shandong spot is 1830 (+20), Henan spot is 1840 (unchanged), and FOB China is 3102 [6]. - Futures Market: The price of the 01 contract is 1753 (+16), the 05 contract is 1789 (+10), and the 09 contract is 1702 (-5). The basis of the UR01 contract is 77 (+4) [6]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts are 6473 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 0.896 million tons (unchanged), and UR port inventory is 0.541 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [10].