Report Summary 1. Market Performance Review and Outlook - The price of the main polycrystalline silicon contract continued to fluctuate at a high level. The closing price of PS2511 was 49,665 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The trading volume was 376,304 lots, and the open interest was 143,912 lots, with a net decrease of 10,625 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of n-type re-feeding polycrystalline silicon was 46,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. The polycrystalline silicon output in August will increase to 125,000 tons, and in September, it will enter the stage of production restriction and sales control, but the monthly output is expected to remain above 120,000 tons. The demand is simply calculated to be 56.8GW, higher than the expected output of solar cells. The downward pressure on terminal demand will gradually be transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity in July was only 11GW, and the fundamentals remained loose. The rigid spot price provides strong support for the futures price, but the implementation of policies has not been significantly reflected in the fundamentals. The weak terminal demand pressure is emerging, and the high-level warehouse receipts continue to increase, so the futures price is under pressure and will mainly fluctuate widely [4]. 2. Market News - On August 28, the number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts was 6,880 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - As of August 22, many photovoltaic listed companies, including LONGi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., Ltd., and Trina Solar, released their first-half "report cards". Some photovoltaic module manufacturers such as Aikosolar Co., Ltd. and Hongyuan Green Energy showed signs of performance improvement, achieving loss reduction or turning losses into profits in the first half of the year. Experts believe that in the context of the continuous advancement of the "anti-involution" process in the photovoltaic industry, as the price adjustment in the polycrystalline silicon segment is gradually accepted by the downstream market, the module price will soon return to the cost line. The whole industry maintaining low-load production and low gross profit margins may become the norm. In addition, promoting "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry cannot only focus on the manufacturing end, and the role of the asset end is also crucial [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6GW, and the new installed capacity from January to July was 223.25GW. The new installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year-on-year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].
建信期货多晶硅日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-29 01:55