大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250829

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 29, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Core Views - LLDPE and PP are expected to show a volatile trend today. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies. Potential risks are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is being planned, expected to be introduced in September. - Supply and demand: The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (-30), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -78, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), showing a neutral situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. - Main positions: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. [4] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies. - Bearish factors: Weak demand. [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, contracting for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industry is being planned, expected to be introduced in September. - Supply and demand: The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has slightly improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7000 (-50), with a neutral overall fundamental situation. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -20, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.3%, showing a neutral signal. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), indicating a neutral situation. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. - Main positions: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. [8] Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies. - Bearish factors: Weak demand. [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 7280 (-30), and the price of the 01 contract is 7358 (-6). - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 7000 (-50), and the price of the 01 contract is 7020 (-1). [11] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), including 7669 warehouse receipts (unchanged). - PP: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), including 14055 warehouse receipts (unchanged). [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5%. [16] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0%. [18]