沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250829

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The outer market rebounds with support at the 20 - day moving average. The cost line is firm as ore prices remain stable and ferronickel prices rise slightly. Stainless - steel inventory has increased, and the demand boost from the "Golden September and Silver October" is awaited. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the ternary battery loading volume has decreased year - on - year, limiting overall demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The 202510 contract will oscillate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below [2]. - 不锈钢: Spot stainless - steel prices are flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are stable, freight rates are firm, and ferronickel prices rise slightly, making the cost line firm. Stainless - steel inventory has increased, and the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" should be monitored. The 202510 contract will oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Overview - Nickel and Stainless - steel Prices: On August 28, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract closed at 120,990 yuan, down 770 yuan from the previous day; the LME nickel closed at 15,300 US dollars, up 110 US dollars; the stainless - steel futures main contract remained unchanged at 12,850 yuan. Spot prices of various nickel products decreased, while cold - rolled stainless - steel prices remained flat [12]. Inventory Situation - Nickel Inventory: As of August 28, LME nickel inventory was 209,676 tons, an increase of 456 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 22,013 tons, a decrease of 12 tons. The total inventory was 231,689 tons, an increase of 444 tons [15]. - Stainless - steel Inventory: As of August 22, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons. On August 28, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts were 100,431 tons, a decrease of 420 tons [18][19]. Raw Material Prices - Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices: On August 28, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and that of Ni0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. High - nickel ferronickel was 942 yuan per nickel point, and low - nickel ferronickel was 3,440 yuan per ton, also unchanged [22]. Production Cost - Stainless - steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost was 13,016 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,542 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,644 yuan [24]. Import Cost - Nickel Import Cost: The converted import price was 123,156 yuan per ton [27]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Expectations of demand boost during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 yuan [7]. - Negative Factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply pattern, and a year - on - year decrease in ternary battery loading volume [7].