棉花早报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are considered neutral, with the 2025/26 annual output and consumption data from different institutions showing a complex situation. The basis is positive as the spot price has a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is negative according to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's forecast. The market is short - term bullish with the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the probability of the cotton price rising further is relatively high after the price stands above 14,000 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous China - US mutual tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, as well as an enhanced expectation for the peak consumption season. Negative factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 annual output is 25.9 million tons and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows an output of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 annual forecast shows an output of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,336 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,266 yuan, with the spot having a premium over the futures [4]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's August 2025/26 annual forecast shows an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectation: The main 01 contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures rose sharply during the night session, reaching a short - term high. With the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's optimistic sentiment temporarily prevails. After the price stands above 14,000, the probability of further increase is relatively high. The short - term trading strategy is to be bullish on oscillations [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In August, the total global output is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The total global consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The total global ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 747,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11][12]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 annual, the global output is 25.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%); consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast of the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast: In the 2025/26 annual, the output is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic price of 3128B cotton is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the content.