大越期货白糖早报-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of white sugar 01 oscillates and declines. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out - quota imported sugar. In the short term, Zhengzhou white sugar may oscillate around 5600. Unless the price of foreign sugar falls below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou white sugar [5][9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Conab estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6010, with a basis of 408 (for contract 01), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5]. - Expectation: The main contract of white sugar 01 oscillates and declines. The import of sugar has increased significantly in recent months, and the current price of contract 01 is close to the cost price of out - quota imported sugar. In the short term, Zhengzhou white sugar may oscillate around 5600. Unless the price of foreign sugar falls below 16 cents, there is limited room for further decline in Zhengzhou white sugar [5][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. Green Pool estimates a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA estimates a surplus of 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow estimates a surplus of 7.8 million tons, and Datagro estimates a surplus of 2.58 million tons [9][35]. - Domestic Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: The supply and demand of white sugar in the domestic market has a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing. The average spot sales price of domestic sugar is close to 6000. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - quota import tariff of raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, and the adjusted tariff is slightly lower than the out - quota import tariff of raw sugar. Coca - Cola's formula modification is long - term bullish for white sugar [9]. - Import Situation: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4][9]. 3.5 Position Data The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, the trend of the main force is unclear, and it is bearish [5].