大越期货沥青期货早报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is still high. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate decreased, and the refinery reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - The demand for asphalt is currently below the historical average. The construction and road - related asphalt开工率 (operating rates) are mostly lower than historical levels, although the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased slightly [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is negative but increasing, and the delayed coking profit in Shandong is decreasing. The difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit is narrowing, and the strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [8]. - The basis is neutral, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3497 - 3537 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%, and the sample enterprise production was 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices was 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. The refinery's production cut this week will reduce supply pressure in the future [7]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong was 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [8]. - Basis: On August 28, the spot price in Shandong was 3,510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 27 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The factory inventory was 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05% [8]. - Market Outlook: It is expected that the market will be in a narrow - range shock in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3497 - 3537 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18]. - Spread Analysis - 主力合约价差 (Main Contract Spread): The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing market structure and arbitrage opportunities [22]. - 沥青原油价格走势 (Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend): The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil from 2020 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - 原油裂解价差 (Crude Oil Cracking Spread): The historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the profitability of asphalt production [28]. - 沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势 (Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio): The historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships between different energy products [33]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the regional asphalt spot market [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - 沥青利润 (Asphalt Profit): The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the profitability of the asphalt industry [37]. - 焦化沥青利润价差走势 (Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread): The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the profit differences between different production processes [41]. - Supply - Side Analysis - 出货量 (Shipment Volume): The historical trends of small - sample asphalt enterprise shipment volume from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply situation from the perspective of sales [44]. - 稀释沥青港口库存 (Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory): The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the supply situation from the perspective of inventory [46]. - 产量 (Production): The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the overall supply situation [49]. - 马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势 (Marine - derived Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production): The historical trends of Marine - derived crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [53]. - 地炼沥青产量 (Local Refinery Asphalt Production): The historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the supply contribution of local refineries [55]. - 开工率 (Operating Rate): The historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the production activity level of the asphalt industry [58]. - 检修损失量预估 (Estimated Maintenance Loss): The historical trends of estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [60]. - Inventory Analysis - 交易所仓单 (Exchange Warehouse Receipts): The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing market supply and demand expectations [64]. - 社会库存和厂内库存 (Social Inventory and Factory Inventory): The historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the inventory distribution and market supply and demand situation [67]. - 厂内库存存货比 (Factory Inventory - Stock Ratio): The historical trends of the factory inventory - stock ratio from 2018 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [70]. - 进出口情况 (Import - Export Situation) - 沥青出口走势 (Asphalt Export Trend): The historical trends of asphalt export from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the international market demand for domestic asphalt [73]. - 沥青进口走势 (Asphalt Import Trend): The historical trends of asphalt import from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the impact of international supply on the domestic market [73]. - 韩国沥青进口价差走势 (Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread): The historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the cost - effectiveness of imported asphalt [76]. - Demand - Side Analysis - 石油焦产量 (Petroleum Coke Production): The historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in related industries [79]. - 表观消费量 (Apparent Consumption): The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the overall market demand [82]. - 下游需求 (Downstream Demand) - 公路建设交通固定资产走势 (Highway Construction Fixed - Asset Investment): The historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment from 2020 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in highway construction [85]. - 新增地方专项债走势 (New Local Special Bonds): The historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the financial support for infrastructure construction and asphalt demand [86]. - 基础建设投资完成额同比 (Year - on - Year Growth of Infrastructure Investment Completion): The historical trends of the year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 - 2024 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the overall infrastructure construction situation and asphalt demand [86]. - 下游机械需求走势 (Downstream Machinery Demand): The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 - 2025 are shown, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in construction projects [89]. - 压路机销量走势 (Roller Sales): The historical trends of roller sales from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in road compaction [91]. - 沥青开工率 (Asphalt Operating Rate) - 重交沥青开工率 (Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate): The historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the production activity level of heavy - traffic asphalt [94]. - 按用途分沥青开工率 (Asphalt Operating Rate by Use): The historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the production activity levels of different types of asphalt [97]. - 下游开工情况 (Downstream Operating Conditions) - 鞋材用sbs改性沥青开工率 (SBS - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate for Footwear): The historical trends of SBS - modified asphalt operating rate for footwear from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the footwear industry [100]. - 道路改性沥青开工率 (Road - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate): The historical trends of road - modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown, which can assist in analyzing the demand for asphalt in road construction [100]. - 防水卷材改性沥青开工率 (Waterproofing Membrane - Modified Asphalt Operating Rate): The historical trends of waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented, which can help analyze the demand for asphalt in the waterproofing membrane industry [102]. - 供需平衡表 (Supply - Demand Balance Sheet): The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including data on production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which can help comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand situation [105].