建信期货集运指数日报-20250829

Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, and online quotes have been lowered. The fundamental situation remains unfavorable. However, the current main contract EC2510 has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. Attention should be paid to whether there will be marginal benefits later to help stabilize the market. The EC2510 contract can be shorted on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Current Market: The SCFIS has dropped below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, and online quotes have been lowered again. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's opening prices for the first and second weeks of September are $2210 and $1900 respectively, with an expanding decline. Other airlines have also cut prices to attract cargo. The fundamental situation remains unfavorable. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, with sufficient expectations for price cuts. Attention should be paid to marginal benefits such as more blank sailings and slower price cuts to help stabilize the market and ease the pessimistic expectations for the 12 - contract and boost the year - end price - support expectations. The 10 - contract can be shorted on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - China's Export Container Shipping Market (August 18 - 22): The market was basically stable, but the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. Most route freight rates declined, and the comprehensive index continued to adjust. On August 22, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1415.36 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [9]. - European Routes: In August, the eurozone's composite PMI rose to 51.1, better than expected. However, due to the impact of US tariff policies, foreign orders in the eurozone's manufacturing industry declined for the second consecutive month. On August 22, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1668/TEU, down 8.4% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was basically the same as that of European routes, and the spot booking prices continued to fall. On August 22, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2225/TEU, down 2.4% from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: As of the week ending August 16, the number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20, and the number of continued jobless claims reached the highest level since November 2021, indicating a cooling labor market. Under trade protectionism, US companies are reducing recruitment. The freight demand growth was weak, and the supply - demand fundamentals lacked support. On August 22, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1644/FEU and $2613/FEU respectively, down 6.5% and 3.9% from the previous period [9][10]. - US Furniture Tariff Investigation: US President Trump announced a "major" tariff investigation on imported furniture, which will be completed within 50 days. New tariffs on imported furniture have pushed up the consumer price of household items by 0.7% in July. The potential furniture import tariffs will further hit the industry that has already been affected by other tariffs [10]. - Israeli - Palestinian Situation: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu approved the plan for the Israeli army to capture Gaza City and demanded accelerated progress. US President Trump "fully supports" Israel's military goal of controlling Gaza City to eliminate Hamas [10]. 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: From August 18 to August 25, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) decreased from 2180.17 to 1990.2, a decline of 8.7%. The SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) decreased from 1106.29 to 1041.38, a decline of 5.9% [12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market: Provided trading data for multiple contracts on August 28, including EC2510, EC2512, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6]. - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][20]