LPG早报-20250829

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PG futures price fluctuated and strengthened, mainly due to the rebound of spot prices and the increase in import costs [1]. - The fundamentals show that port supply and demand both decreased, inventory remained basically flat, refinery product volume increased by 1.94%, and plant inventories decreased due to the recovery of demand in many places [1]. - The combustion off - season is gradually coming to an end as the temperature begins to drop. The supply of refineries in East China is expected to be limited, and the arrival of ships is expected to decrease. The demand is expected to improve, and the overall situation is expected to be stable [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price Data - From August 22 - 28, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and other products showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG rose from 4490 on August 22 to 4620 on August 28 [1]. - The 09 - 10 month spread was - 600 (- 63), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 77 (- 16) on Thursday. Previously, the 9 - 10 month spread was - 509 (- 38), and the 10 - 11 month spread was 80 (+ 0) [1]. - The basis weakened to 520 (- 19), and the warehouse receipt registration volume was 12887 (- 1) [1]. Market Conditions - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas. The supply of refineries in East China was limited, driving prices to be firm, and port prices rose steadily [1]. - FEI and CP fluctuated, PP prices fell, the production profit of FEI and CP for PP weakened, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI [1]. - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - The outer - market prices strengthened slightly, the internal - external price difference fluctuated, and the FEI - CP increased to 17 (+ 5.25) [1]. - Freight rates such as US Gulf - Japan and Middle East - Far East decreased [1]. Industry Operation - The PDH operating rate was 75.66% (- 0.67pct), with no shutdown plan next week, but it is expected that the load of multiple units will increase [1]. - The alkylation operating rate was 51.42% (- 0.67pct), and the operating rate is expected to increase next week [1]. - The MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+ 0.15pct) [1].