大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the recent device changes are frequent, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, the spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate accordingly. However, the processing margin needs improvement, and attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will continue to decline in the near two weeks due to scarce arrivals in late August and improved提货 at the main port. Starting from early September, the arrivals from overseas will increase. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong under the resonance of low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [7]. - The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved compared with the previous day, the spot basis loosened, with mainly traders negotiating and sporadic polyester factories making inquiries. Next - week's goods were traded at a discount of 20 - 30 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4755 - 4810. Goods in mid - and late - September were traded at a discount of 20 - 25 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 24 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4775, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 17, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, an increase of 0.1 days compared with the previous period [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [5]. - Expectation: The short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the maintenance duration of Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the market negotiation was average. The commodity atmosphere was weak during the day, and a major polyester bottle - chip manufacturer will maintain production cuts, suppressing market sentiment. The ethylene glycol futures were sorted at a low level during the day, and the spot negotiation and trading were carried out at a premium of 62 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. There were more spot offers this week. However, the support gradually emerged after the price fell to a low level, and the futures rebounded moderately in the afternoon. In terms of US dollars, the overseas price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and a small number of traders participated in buying. Recent shipments were traded at around 531 - 533 US dollars/ton. There was a tender for a Malaysian shipment during the day, and attention should be paid to the transaction progress [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4525, and the basis of the 01 contract is 60, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a decrease of 9.42 tons compared with the previous period [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main force position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: The port inventory will continue to decline in the near two weeks, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation starting from early September. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention should be paid to polyester load and production - sales changes [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including total operating rate, production, new production capacity, imports, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, and port inventory changes [12]. Price - It shows the price changes of various products on August 28, 2025, including spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester products, as well as futures prices and basis of PTA and MEG, and processing margins and profits of related products [13]. Inventory Analysis - It shows the inventory changes of PTA, MEG, PET slices, polyester fibers, etc. in different periods through charts [40][41][43]. Polyester Upstream Start - up - It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol in different periods through charts [51][52][54]. Polyester Downstream Start - up - It shows the start - up rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in different periods through charts [55][56][58]. PTA Processing Fee - It shows the PTA processing fee changes in different periods through a chart [59][60]. MEG Profit - It shows the profit changes of MEG produced by different processes (methanol, coal - based syngas, naphtha integration, ethylene) in different periods through charts [62][63]. Polyester Fiber Profit - It shows the profit changes of polyester short - fiber and different types of polyester long - fiber (DTY, POY, FDY) in different periods through charts [65][67][68].