建信期货国债日报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, and the uncertainty of tariffs remains high. There is a risk of a post - export - rush decline, so the bull - market foundation for bonds remains unchanged. [11] - In the short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has been significantly strengthened since late June. The bullish equity market has put great pressure on the bond market. Although the fundamental data in July showed marginal weakness, it still demonstrated short - term resilience, and it is difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term rebound of the bond market cannot form a trend. [11] - Similar to the stock - bond seesaw period from February to March this year, the bond market may need to see the alleviation of relevant negative forces to stabilize and rise. Recently, the upward momentum of the A - share market has slowed down, and the central bank has actively protected the capital market, so the pressure on the bond market has eased, and its sensitivity to the stock market has weakened. However, it is necessary to observe the adjustment of the A - share market and be vigilant against renewed suppression. If the equity market starts a new round of upward movement, it may intensify the redemption pressure of fixed - income products and bring passive selling pressure. [12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions on the Day - The A - share market rebounded in a V - shape in the afternoon, and the bond market was suppressed again. All treasury bond futures closed lower. [8] 3.1.2 Interest Rate Spot Bonds - The yields of major term interest - rate spot bonds in the inter - bank market declined slightly, mostly within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.761%, down 0.25bp. [9] 3.1.3 Capital Market - The central bank increased its capital injection to support cross - month funds. There were 253 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable. Most short - term capital interest rates rose. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.31%, the 7 - day interest rate rose about 3bp to 1.54%, the medium - and long - term capital remained stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fell to 1.6%. [10] 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption next month, and will jointly formulate the "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports" with relevant departments, and the relevant documents will be publicly issued soon. [13] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared with June. The profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, leading the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above the designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared with June. [13] - In 2024, China's new economic development momentum index was 136.0, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. All sub - indices increased compared with the previous year, with the network economy and innovation drive contributing significantly to the growth of the total index. [13] - In 2024, China's trade volume with other member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reached about $512.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. [14] - Shanghai issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the transformation of urban villages, prioritizing the transformation of urban villages with urgent public needs, many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers, and requiring the first - time shareholding ratio of town collective economic organizations in cooperative transformation to be no less than 10%. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on treasury bond futures trading on August 28, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. [6] - It also mentions various data on treasury bond futures, including the spread between main - contract tenors, the spread between main - contract varieties, the trend of main - contract prices, as well as data on the money market (such as SHIBOR term - structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged - repo weighted interest rate changes, and inter - bank deposit pledged - repo interest rate changes) and the derivatives market (such as Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves). All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [15][25][35]