贵金属日评-20250829

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 29, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold is accumulating upward breakthrough momentum despite temporarily being blocked at the $3400/oz level, with the bottom of the phased correction since the end of June gradually rising. The volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500/oz and then rise again. [4] - The price of silver with strong industrial attributes has been boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the strong rebound of the Chinese stock market, and the London gold - silver ratio has returned to 87.5. [4] - The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price, but the high price - to - earnings ratio also means significant volatility. The weak US employment market provides a necessary condition for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process, but rising inflation pressure may restrict the pace. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in gold and silver trading with medium - to - low positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling. [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about the loss of US fiscal and financial discipline. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the strong rebound of the Chinese stock market have boosted the price of silver. The gold - silver ratio in London has returned to 87.5. The new Trump 2.0 policy has greatly boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500/oz and then rise again. [4] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500/oz. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in the range of $3120 - $3500/oz in the short term, with the bottom of the correction gradually rising since the end of June. [5] Domestic Precious Metals Market - The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 785.49, up 0.28%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9399, up 0.77%; Gold T + D closed at 779.97, up 0.30%; Silver T + D closed at 9330, up 0.75%. [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides six charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. [7] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed may cut interest rates at some point, but policymakers need to see economic data before deciding whether to cut rates at the September 16 - 17 meeting. Fed Governor Cook's lawsuit against Trump's dismissal may be filed as early as Wednesday. [8] - The EU will accelerate legislation to cancel tariffs on US industrial products this week. Mexico plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports in its 2026 budget proposal next month. [8]