Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on August 29, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers are Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is judged to be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with a support level of 78,500 yuan, as the fundamentals still support the copper price during the domestic off - peak to peak season transition, and macro - level fluctuations present buying opportunities for downstream players [10] 4. Content Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices declined due to negative macro - factors such as Trump seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook and threatening an economic war against Russia, which raised market risk - aversion. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 78,650 yuan, and the spot copper price fell 355 yuan to 7,9190 yuan. - The spot premium rose 35 yuan to 205 yuan as lower copper prices stimulated downstream purchases. Social inventories increased by 0.41 tons to 12.71 tons this week with more imports arriving. - The profit of the spot import window widened to 330 yuan, but the buying sentiment for Yangshan copper was average. The warehouse receipt premium rose 2 dollars/ton, while the bill of lading premium decreased 2 dollars/ton. - The short - term fundamentals show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas markets, with LME inventories being transferred to China. LME inventories increased slightly for two consecutive days to 15.8 tons, and the inventory increase in August was lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential return of COMEX inventories [10] 4.2 Industry News - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted its copper - gold mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. The mine is expected to resume full - scale production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Mine production increased in Peru by 2.7%, in the Congo by 9.5%, and in Mongolia by 31%. Chile's production grew by 2.6%, while Indonesia's production decreased by 36%. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined growth in China and the Congo [11][12]
建信期货铜期货日报-20250829
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-29 02:29