Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodities. It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector. For example, in the stock index futures market, there may be a small - scale shock adjustment, and it is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next direction. In the bond market, it is mainly in a range - bound state, and short - term unilateral strategies for bond futures can be on hold [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: On Thursday, the A - share market showed a V - shaped reversal. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures all rose, and the basis of the main contracts all increased. The trading volume of A - shares remained high, and the central bank had a net investment. Due to the rapid inflow of short - term leveraged funds, there is a certain risk of a small - scale shock adjustment. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next direction [2][3][4]. - Treasury Futures: The stock market strengthened, and the sentiment in the bond market weakened. Treasury futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose. The central bank had a net investment, and the inter - bank market funds were slightly looser. The bond market is currently in a range - bound state, and short - term unilateral strategies for bond futures can be on hold [5][7]. Precious Metals - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continued to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals strengthened approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range. International gold and silver prices both rose. In the short term, gold may冲击 the previous high resistance level of $3450, and it is recommended to continue to hold the bull spread strategy of buying and selling gold call options. For silver, it is recommended to hold long positions [10][12]. Container Shipping Futures - The main contract of EC showed a weak trend. Spot prices continued to decline, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short the 10 - and 12 - month contracts at high prices [13][14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range. The spot price decreased slightly, and the supply is expected to be relatively stable. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory shows a pattern of LME and COMEX inventory accumulation and domestic social inventory depletion. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 78000 - 80000 [16][18][20]. - Alumina: The disk continued to run weakly, and the surplus pressure was prominent. The spot price declined, the supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term, with the main contract reference range of 3000 - 3300 [20][21][22]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment has improved, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be realized. The spot price decreased slightly, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the transition stage from the off - season to the peak season. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000 [22][23][25]. - Aluminum Alloy: Inventory accumulation continued, policy changes affected costs, and the spot price was firm. The supply is affected by the off - season, and the demand has marginal improvement. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the main contract reference range is 20000 - 20600 [25][26][27]. - Zinc: Domestic inventory continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals had limited support for the price. The spot price decreased, the supply was loose, and the demand was in the off - season. It is expected to be in a shock state, and the main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [28][29][30]. - Tin: After the State Council issued relevant policies, the tin price continued to be strong. The spot price was high, the supply was tight, and the demand was weak. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][31][33]. - Nickel: The sentiment was slightly adjusted, and the disk fluctuated. The fundamentals changed little. The spot price decreased, the supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand was stable. It is expected to be in an interval adjustment, and the main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [34][35][36]. - Stainless Steel: The disk maintained a shock, and there was a game between cost support and weak demand. The spot price was stable, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak. It is expected to be in an interval shock, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 [37][38][39]. - Lithium Carbonate: The sentiment weakened again, and the main contract broke through downward. The fundamentals maintained a slight production reduction and inventory depletion. The spot price decreased, the supply was in a tight balance, and the demand was stable and optimistic. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][42][43]. Black Metals - Steel: The price maintained a weak decline. The spot price increased slightly, the cost support weakened, the supply was high, and the demand decreased seasonally. It is recommended to wait and see [43][44][45]. - Iron Ore: The global shipment volume decreased from a high level, and the port inventory decreased slightly. The price of the 2601 contract showed a shock - rebound trend. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [47][48]. - Coking Coal: The spot price fluctuated weakly, and the coal mine had a slight inventory accumulation. The futures price showed a shock - rebound trend. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 01 contract and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [49][50][51]. - Coke: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, and the eighth round was initiated. The futures price showed a shock - rebound trend. It is recommended to short at high prices and conduct arbitrage by going long on iron ore and short on coke [52][53][56]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The market news is complex, and the long - term bullish expectation remains unchanged. The domestic spot price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased. The supply of US soybeans is strong and the demand is weak, while the cost of domestic meal has strong support. It is recommended to go long at low prices when the price is in the range of 3000 - 3050 [58][59][60]. - Pigs: The spot price fluctuated weakly. The breeding end continued to resume slaughter, and the downstream slaughter and acquisition were relatively smooth. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 01 contract at around 13800 [61][62]. - Corn: The spot price was weak, and the futures price rebounded due to position reduction and the increase in the opening price. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is obvious, and it is necessary to pay attention to the growth of new - season corn [63][64].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250829
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-29 02:52