甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Methanol: Port inventories are significantly accumulating, with high imports and current inventories. The inland supply is expected to return, and the traditional demand will enter the peak season later. Attention should be paid to whether the demand can support after the inland supply returns. If the inventories deteriorate significantly, methanol is likely to see a valuation decline [1]. - Polyethylene: The inventories of the two major oil companies are neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventories are neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the new device commissioning in 2025 [5]. - Polypropylene: The upstream inventories of the two major oil companies and the mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be eased to a neutral level [5]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2297 to 2235, a decrease of 62; the South China spot price decreased from 2290 to 2259, a decrease of 31; the Lunan converted - to - futures price decreased from 2505 to 2505 (no change); the Southwest converted - to - futures price remained at 2480; the Hebei converted - to - futures price remained at 2525; the Northwest converted - to - futures price decreased from 2678 to 2655, a decrease of 23; the CFR China price decreased from 263 to 261, a decrease of 2; the CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 322; the import profit remained unchanged; the main - contract basis decreased from - 5 to - 140, a decrease of 135; the MTO profit on the futures market remained at - 1237 [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 842. The North China LL price remained at 7230; the East China LL price decreased from 7365 to 7350, a decrease of 15; the East China LD price remained at 9625; the East China HD price remained at 7550; the LL US dollar price remained at 860; the LL US Gulf price remained at 840; the import profit remained at - 162; the main - contract futures price decreased from 7380 to 7358, a decrease of 22; the basis decreased from - 160 to - 140, an increase of 20; the two - oil inventory remained at 73; the warehouse receipts remained at 7669 [5]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6500 to 6550, an increase of 50; the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 760; the East China PP price decreased from 6955 to 6920, a decrease of 35; the North China PP price decreased from 7003 to 6983, a decrease of 20; the Shandong powder price remained at 6830; the East China copolymer PP price decreased from 7202 to 7190, a decrease of 12; the PP US dollar price remained at 865; the PP US Gulf price remained at 980; the export profit remained at - 20; the main - contract futures price decreased from 7038 to 7020, a decrease of 18; the basis remained at - 90; the two - oil inventory remained at 73; the warehouse receipts remained at 14055 [5]. PVC - Price Data: From August 22 to August 28, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350; the Shandong caustic soda price remained at 887; the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased from 4840 to 4780, a decrease of 60; the ethylene - based East China price remained at 5500; the calcium - carbide - based South China price remained at 5450; the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained at 4500; the imported US dollar price (CFR China) remained at 710; the export profit remained at 525; the Northwest comprehensive profit remained at 356; the North China comprehensive profit remained at - 244; the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 160 [5].