Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and potential arbitrage opportunities in the low - inventory situation [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases, demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended, while a short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. - For nickel, supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation. Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. - Lead prices fluctuate. Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. - Tin prices fluctuate widely. Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth. A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - The production of industrial silicon resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand situation may remain tight, while in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuate on the futures market due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances. The price has large upward and downward elasticities [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 50, the warehouse receipt decreased by 55, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1850 [1]. - Fundamentals: The market risk preference continues to rise. The downstream orders are supported at around 7.8. The copper rod production rate shows resilience at the end of the off - season, and the substitution effect between refined and scrap copper is obvious. The scrap copper market is disturbed by policies, and there may be a small inventory accumulation in August [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the import alumina price decreased by 50. The inventory remained unchanged [1]. - Supply and Demand: Supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The export of aluminum products improves, but photovoltaic demand and overseas demand decline. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August [2]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 2025 [5]. - Supply and Demand: Supply increases as the smelting increment is further realized in August and the zinc ore import in July reaches a three - year high. Demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5]. - Strategy: Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. A short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1450, and the inventory of LME increased by 456 [6]. - Supply and Demand: Supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable [6]. - Strategy: Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils and other products remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xifu decreased slightly [6]. - Supply and Demand: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly [6]. - Strategy: Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the spot premium increased by 10, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 4975 [8]. - Supply and Demand: Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the spot import profit decreased by 1094.76, and the inventory of LME decreased by 30 [11]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth [11]. - Strategy: A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 53 [14]. - Supply and Demand: The production resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. The supply - demand situation may remain tight in the short - term, while prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long - term [14]. Carbonate Lithium - Price and Inventory Changes: From August 22 to 28, the SMM electric carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the warehouse receipt increased by 1480 [16]. - Supply and Demand: The futures market fluctuates due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances [16].
有色早报-20250829
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-29 02:54