《黑色》日报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, influenced by the expectation of crude steel production reduction in the 2025 - 2026 steel industry's stable - growth plan, steel prices strengthened slightly, but the night - session performance was weak. Weekly data shows an increase in steel production, low off - season apparent demand, and inventory accumulation. Considering the seasonality of rebar demand, it is expected that the apparent demand for rebar will rise during the peak season, driving up the apparent demand for the five major steel products. With the expectation of supply - side contraction and steel demand not stalling and coking coal not resuming production, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed an oscillatory rebound. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased from a high level, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined. However, based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume will increase periodically. On the demand side, last week, the steel mills' profit margins were at a relatively high level. During the Tangshan military parade, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from a high level but remained around 240,000 tons per day. The impact of production restrictions will be reflected in the molten iron output next week. The data of the five major steel products shows that the recent increase in steel production and apparent demand supports iron ore. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory decreased. Looking ahead, the molten iron output will decline slightly before and after the military parade, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise in the fundamentals. Since the steel mills' profit margins are still high, the molten iron output in September will remain at a high level. On the 28th, the steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Strategically, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3][5]. Coke Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed an oscillatory rebound, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The coke spot price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotes followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of price increases, the coking profit improved. However, due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, etc., the coking enterprises' operation rate decreased slightly. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased from a high level, but downstream demand still had resilience. In terms of inventory, the coking plants, ports, and steel mills all had a slight inventory increase, and the overall inventory was at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still had inventory replenishment needs, and the delayed arrival of goods was the reason for the recent strength of the coke spot. Tangshan's production restrictions are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. In the short term, the tight supply - demand situation will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the coke supply will gradually become more abundant. The steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Speculatively, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Industry - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking coal futures showed an oscillatory rebound, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction prices were stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotes were weakly stable. On the spot side, the recent domestic coking coal auctions have weakened. After the price rose to a high level, the downstream procurement willingness decreased, and some coal types declined. Currently, the overall situation is weakly stable. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, the coal mine operation rate decreased slightly month - on - month, sales slowed down, and some coal mines started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price followed the futures price down. Due to the high price, the downstream users' inventory replenishment has been cautious recently. On the demand side, due to the pre - parade production restrictions in Tangshan's steel industry and coking production restrictions in Shandong and Henan, the coking operation rate decreased slightly, and the downstream molten iron output decreased slightly from a high level. In terms of inventory, the coal mines, ports, and border crossings had a slight inventory increase, while the coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills had a slight inventory decrease. The overall inventory decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market weakened after a slight correction and is currently weakly stable. The near - month contract is approaching delivery, and the warehouse - receipt delivery exerts some pressure on the 09 contract. The far - month valuation is still at a premium compared to the near - month Mongolian coal warehouse receipt. The Fujian Datian mine accident and the production - restriction expectations caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi drove a sharp rise on Monday, but the spot market remains weakly stable. The steel industry's stable - growth work plan was released on the 28th, driving the resonance rise of black - series products. Speculatively, it is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,260 yuan/ton, and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3,246 yuan/ton, 3,129 yuan/ton, and 3,205 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 32 yuan/ton, 18 yuan/ton, and 33 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3,410 yuan/ton, 3,360 yuan/ton, and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3,380 yuan/ton, 3,385 yuan/ton, and 3,372 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts increased by 32 yuan/ton, 36 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 3,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The slab price was 3,730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's electric - arc furnace rebar was 3,346 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu's converter rebar was 3,193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 5 yuan/ton, - 25 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively, all decreasing by 28 yuan/ton. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were - 38 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton, and - 38 yuan/ton respectively, with the North China profit decreasing by 18 yuan/ton and the others decreasing by 38 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons (- 0.3%). The output of the five major steel products was 8.846 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons (0.7%). The rebar output was 220,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons (2.8%), including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 1,500 tons (5.0%) and an increase in converter output of 4,400 tons (2.4%). The hot - rolled coil output was 324,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 14.679 million tons, an increase of 268,000 tons (1.9%). The rebar inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 164,000 tons (2.7%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 103,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons (12.6%). The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.578 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons (0.6%). The apparent demand for rebar was 204,200 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons (4.8%). The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 320,700 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.2%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 812.1 yuan/ton, 828.2 yuan/ton, 840.6 yuan/ton, and 839.2 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing. The 01 - contract basis for these four types of ore increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread was - 45.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton (- 5.8%); the 9 - 1 spread was 20.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.4%); the 1 - 5 spread was 25.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan/ton (13.6%) [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port were 891.0 yuan/ton, 781.0 yuan/ton, 818.0 yuan/ton, and 737.0 yuan/ton respectively, all increasing. The Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap price was 101.8 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.1 US dollars (0.1%), and the Platts 62% Fe price was 102.5 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.5 US dollars (0.5%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) was 23.933 million tons, a decrease of 833,000 tons (- 3.4%). The global shipment volume (weekly) was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 908,000 tons (- 2.7%). The national monthly import volume was 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.315 million tons (- 1.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons (- 0.2%). The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) was 325,700 tons, a decrease of 8,900 tons (- 2.7%). The national monthly pig iron output was 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.108 million tons (- 1.5%), and the national monthly crude steel output was 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 3.526 million tons (- 4.2%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared with Monday) was 137.9868 million tons, a decrease of 465,000 tons (- 0.3%). The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.655 million tons, a decrease of 709,000 tons (- 0.8%). The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 20 days, unchanged [3]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke were 1,610 yuan/ton and 1,635 yuan/ton respectively, with the latter decreasing by 11 yuan/ton (- 0.74%). The 09 and 01 contracts of coke were 1,584 yuan/ton and 1,673 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract decreasing by 17 yuan/ton (- 1.14%) and the 01 contract increasing by 3 yuan/ton (0.2%). The 09 and 01 basis were 52 yuan/ton and - 38 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 basis increasing by 6 yuan/ton and the 01 basis decreasing by 14 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [6]. Production - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 64,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (- 1.4%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons (0.0%) [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons (- 0.2%) [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (- 0.1%). The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 65,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons (1.5%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 610,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons (0.1%). The port inventory was 212,100 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons (- 1.2%) [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap was - 60,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons (- 27.1%) [6]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur prime coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal were 1,230 yuan/ton and 1,145 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal were 1,020 yuan/ton and 1,175 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton (0.8%) and the 01 contract increasing by 21 yuan/ton (1.8%). The 09 and 01 basis were 125 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 basis decreasing by 9 yuan/ton and the 01 basis decreasing by 21 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines (weekly) was 860,400 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons (0.4%), and the clean coal output was 442,700 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons (0.8%) [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 64,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (- 1.4%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons (0.0%) [6]. Inventory - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 117,600 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons (5.1%). The all - sample coking plant coking coal inventory was 961,300 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons (- 0.5%). The 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory was 811,900 tons, a decrease of 500 tons (- 0.1%). The port inventory was 275,400 tons, an increase of 13,900 tons (5.3%) [6].