大越期货生猪期货早报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of live pigs are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is predicted to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The live pig LH2511 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,400 to 13,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that in August, the supply and demand peak season before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day is approaching. The supply of pigs and meat is expected to increase this week. The demand is affected by the pessimistic macro - environment and high - temperature weather, but the tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to have both supply and demand increase, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the secondary fattening market dynamics. The overall assessment is neutral. - The basis of the 2511 contract is - 20 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, also rated as neutral. - As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, also bearish. - The net long position of the main contract is increasing, which is bullish. - It is expected that the supply and demand of live pigs will pick up recently, and the pig price will bottom out and rebound, maintaining a range - bound pattern this week [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market entered the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price oscillated weakly in the short term, and the futures market followed the same pattern. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork decreased in the short term. Affected by the decrease in both supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a weakly oscillatory pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery of demand [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in domestic live pig spot prices. - Bearish factors are the pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of the live pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from August 20th to 28th, including prices of near - month 2509, main 2511, and other contracts, as well as the spot prices of outer - ternary live pigs in different regions [14]. - There are also various charts showing the trends of live pig futures basis and spreads, spot prices of different specifications of pigs, and supply - side indicators such as the prices of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows, piglet feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate, inventory at different levels (rural agriculture department, scale farms), pork imports, fattening costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter volume, slaughter profit, and alternative meat price differences [15][17][23]. - On the demand side, there are charts showing the trends of slaughter - end prices, slaughter profit, demand slaughter volume, consumption trends, pig - to - grain ratio, and the situation of state reserve purchases and releases [50][54][60]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data is summarized in the given content.