工业硅期货早报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply increased last week with 88,000 tons produced, a 1.15% increase from the previous week, while demand decreased to 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease, remaining sluggish [6]. - Silicon inventory is at a high level of 249,000 tons, with silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss - making state, and components in a profitable state. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 54,300 tons, with a production profit of 142 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average [6]. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 521,000 tons, with an import loss of 221 yuan/ton. The recycled aluminum operating rate is at a low level of 53%, remaining unchanged from the previous week [6]. - In terms of cost, the production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 3,174 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the flood season has weakened [6]. - On August 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 530 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 543,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 2.31% to 175,100 tons, and major port inventory remained unchanged at 117,000 tons [6]. - The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net short position of the main contract increased [6]. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 8,420 - 8,720 [6]. Polysilicon - Last week, polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease from the previous week. The estimated production in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Last week, silicon wafer production was 15.63GW, a 27.17% increase from the previous week, and inventory increased by 3.67% to 180,500 tons. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production plan in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase from the previous month [9]. - In July, battery cell production was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 7.03GW, a 20.99% increase from the previous week. Currently, production is in a loss - making state. The production plan in August is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase from the previous month [9]. - In July, component production was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase from the previous month. The estimated component production in August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76GW, and the European monthly inventory decreased by 2.29% to 29.8GW. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [9]. - The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,570 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,430 yuan/ton [9]. - On August 28, the price of N - type dense material was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 665 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Weekly inventory increased by 2.89% to 249,000 tons, at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - The net long position of the main contract increased. It is expected that polysilicon 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 48,530 - 50,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Industry Trends: The cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to stop or reduce production. However, the post - holiday demand recovery is slow, and the downstream polysilicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The main logic is that the capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: Most futures contracts showed a slight increase, while some spot prices decreased slightly. The basis situation varies, with the spot of industrial silicon showing a premium to the futures in some cases [17]. - Inventory: Different types of inventories have different trends. Social inventory decreased slightly, sample enterprise inventory increased, and major port inventory remained unchanged [17]. - Production and Operating Rate: The production of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the operating rates of some regions increased slightly [17]. - Cost and Profit: The costs of different regions and types of silicon have changed slightly, and most are in a loss - making state [17]. Polysilicon - Price and Basis: Most futures contract prices increased, and the basis situation shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures in some cases [19]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory increased, and different production links such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different inventory and production profit situations [19]. - Production and Operating Rate: The production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [19].