广发期货《有色》日报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation." The weak reality lies in the expected decline in demand in the second half of the year, while the stable expectation is that the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of domestic stimulus policies will boost the price. In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and entering a new upward cycle requires the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market is in an overall supply - surplus pattern. Although cost support and some factory overhauls exist, the short - term weakness is hard to change. The reference range for the main contract is 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. Mid - term, one can consider short - selling on rallies [3]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In the short term, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. However, supply pressure remains, and cost support is weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement. The supply of scrap aluminum is tightening, and costs are under pressure. Demand in the communication die - casting sector is picking up, while that in the automotive sector is still weak. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply is loose, and the demand is weak, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the depletion of overseas inventories provides price support. The short - term may still be dominated by oscillations. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Affected by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, which boosts the upward movement of tin prices. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly, short - selling on rallies is the main strategy; if the recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is stabilizing, and costs provide certain support. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term is expected to be adjusted within a range, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The cost support remains, but the market sentiment is still cautious due to weak spot demand. The short - term is expected to oscillate within a range, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is weak, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply contraction expectations are gradually being realized, and demand is showing a positive trend. The short - term price has limited downward space, and upward breakthroughs require new drivers. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.45% to 79,190 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 168.48 yuan/ton to 337 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The electrolytic copper import volume was 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped by 0.53% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. Monthly Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in the southwest region dropped by 0.48% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in various regions decreased [4]. Monthly Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.63% to 22,130 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 145.76 yuan/ton to 1,664 yuan/ton [6]. Monthly Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The refined zinc import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [6]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.07% to 271,800 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium dropped by 4.62% to 165 dollars/ton. The import loss increased by 7.11% to 19,581 yuan/ton [8]. Monthly Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.14% to 121,750 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 dropped by 4 dollars/ton to - 189 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 490 yuan/ton to - 1,430 yuan/ton [10]. Monthly Data - The Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while the refined nickel import volume increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The prices of most raw materials remained stable, while the price of 304 waste stainless steel in Wenzhou dropped by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton [12]. Monthly Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The stainless steel import volume decreased by 33.30% to 7.30 million tons, and the export volume increased by 6.74% to 41.63 million tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped by 1.96% to 80,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped by 2.02% to 77,700 yuan/ton [16]. Monthly Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40% [16].