原油成品油早报-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. Medium - term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will drop to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the cracking price expectation of European diesel in the fourth quarter is raised [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Iran Issue: The US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is still willing to have direct contact with Iran. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that the E3 countries' move to initiate "rapid restoration of sanctions" is "unfounded and illegal". An Iranian senior official mentioned that diplomacy with the three European countries will continue, and Tehran will decide on equivalent measures.英法德 restarted the procedure of implementing UN sanctions on Iran, and the UN Security Council will hold a meeting on this on Friday [3][4]. - India's Oil Import: Despite US tariff threats, India is expected to increase its Russian crude oil imports in September by 10% - 20% (150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day more than August). Russia will have more crude oil exports next month as refinery outages (both planned and unplanned) have reduced its crude - to - fuel processing capacity. Ukraine attacked 10 Russian refineries recently, affecting up to 17% of its refining capacity. French bank BNP Paribas believes India won't significantly cut Russian oil imports [4]. - Russian Refining Capacity: Russia's offline crude oil refining capacity in August reached a record high of 6.4 million tons, a 65% increase from previous estimates [4]. Regional Fundamentals - US EIA Report: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 1.41% decrease); the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a 3.34% increase from the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels (a 0.06% increase); and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5][6]. - US Gasoline and Refined Oil Inventories: In the week ending August 15, US EIA gasoline inventories were - 2.72 million barrels (expected - 0.915 million barrels, previous value - 0.792 million barrels), and refined oil inventories were 2.343 million barrels (expected 0.928 million barrels, previous value 0.714 million barrels) [6]. - China's Refining Situation: From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major Chinese refineries decreased month - on - month, while that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries decreased, with gasoline inventories decreasing and diesel inventories increasing. The comprehensive profit of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [6]. Weekly View - Market Situation: This week, crude oil prices oscillated narrowly, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. At the end of the summer peak oil demand season, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. South American supply has been realized, and the market is concerned about the Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of US "punishment" measures on India's purchase of Russian oil. On August 21, India said it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the embargo risk, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. The US announced a new round of sanctions on Iran on Thursday, affecting two Chinese companies, and the Dubai market's month - spread strengthened afterwards [6]. - Macro and Fundamental Analysis: Macroscopically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have slightly decreased, with US commercial inventories, gasoline inventories decreasing, and diesel inventories increasing. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel have strengthened. Currently, refineries are at the peak of operation, and the latest estimate shows that global refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil month - spread is expected to be under pressure [6][7]. - Price Forecast: In the short - term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. In the medium - term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will drop to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the fourth - quarter European diesel cracking price expectation is raised [7].