大越期货PVC期货早报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4981. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - On August 28, 2025, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 156 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [11]. - The factory inventory was 30.6029 tons, a decrease of 6.32% month - on - month. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 23.4929 tons, a decrease of 6.10% month - on - month, and the ethylene method factory inventory was 7.11 tons, a decrease of 7.05% month - on - month. The social inventory was 50.8 tons, an increase of 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory - to - production days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month, showing a neutral signal [11]. - The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [11]. - The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions increased, showing a bearish signal [11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data Supply Side - In July 2025, the PVC output was 200.461 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 77.61%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points month - on - month. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 32.8255 tons, a decrease of 3.94% month - on - month, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 13.656 tons, a decrease of 2.04% month - on - month. The supply pressure decreased this week. It is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase slightly [7]. Demand Side - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 37.65%, an increase of 0.74 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 33.61%, an increase of 0.649 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 70.77%, a decrease of 2.09 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.53%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [7]. Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2727.05 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices of different varieties, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, and more [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report includes the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [27][30][32][35]. - Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rates, profits, daily and weekly outputs, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [40][43]. - Demand Trend: It analyzes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream operating rates of different products, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, social financing scale, and infrastructure investment [45][49][54][57]. - Inventory: It presents the inventory data of exchange warrants, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory - to - production days of enterprises [59]. - Ethylene Method: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price differences in the ethylene method [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].