大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the lithium carbonate market shows a complex pattern of supply and demand. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is anticipated to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced. The cost - side influence is changing, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 76,560 - 79,720 [9]. - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% week - on - week decrease, but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - average CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,454 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production profit is 2,418 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 81,292 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production loss is 3,245 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. 3.2. Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.91% - 1.34% [16]. - Basis: All contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 13.66% - 32.12% [16]. - Registered warrants: The number was 28,957, a 5.39% increase [16]. - Upstream prices: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 3.37%, the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 2.79%, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.96%, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.02% [16]. 3.3. Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of spodumene and lithium mica concentrate decreased [16]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium ore showed an increasing trend, and the production from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt - lake also changed [27][30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium ore increased, especially from Australia [21]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages in most months, with the shortage situation varying [30]. 3.4. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends, and the production from different raw materials also changed [33]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, especially from Chile [21]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation fluctuating [38]. 3.5. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide changed, and the production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) also varied [41]. - Export: The monthly export volume of lithium hydroxide decreased [43]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation changing [43]. 3.6. Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and different recycling materials showed different trends. The profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and other processes also changed [46][48][50]. 3.7. Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products showed different trends in weekly and monthly terms, with the inventory levels of different sources (downstream, smelting plants) also varying [53]. 3.8. Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of batteries showed different trends [57]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells showed different trends for different types (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) [57]. - Shipment: The monthly shipment of power battery cells also showed different trends for different types [57]. 3.9. Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors showed different trends [62]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends for different types (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) [62]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation changing [65]. 3.10. Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials showed different trends [68]. - Production: The weekly and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends for different types [68]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [70]. 3.11. Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate - Price: The price of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [72]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [75]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [76]. 3.12. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles showed different trends for different types (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) [80]. - Sales: The sales of new energy vehicles showed different trends for different types (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) [80]. - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed an increasing trend [81].