大越期货甲醇早报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The policy of China's proposed industrial rectification to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry provides short - term support to market sentiment, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken slightly. It is expected that domestic methanol will show a volatile and consolidating trend this week. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short term, but there are restart plans for some methanol plants, and high port inventories will also have a certain impact. The port market is expected to maintain a situation of high volatility and strong linkage with both upward and downward potential under strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week, with MA2601 expected to operate between 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2601 are neutral. The policy is favorable in the short term, but the supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken. The inland supply - demand is relatively balanced, but there are restart plans for some plants, and port inventories are at a high level. The port market has high volatility. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of August 28, 2025, port inventories have increased significantly, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main positions are net long with an increase in long positions, which is bullish. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate mainly this week [5]. 2. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Some plants are shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories were at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; CTO plants in the northwest region are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants are restarting, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 671 yuan/ton, unchanged; CFR China Main Port is 259 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; the import cost is 2281 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The prices in different domestic regions have different changes, with Jiangsu at 2232 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; Shandong at 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei at 2265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia at 2055 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; Fujian at 2265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - Futures market: The futures closing price is 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the number of registered warrants is 10,266, down 100; the number of effective forecasts is 1383, an increase of 1383 [8]. - Spread structure: The basis is - 141 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the import spread is - 92 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Shandong is - 78 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Hebei is - 33 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia is 177 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 64 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [8]. - Operating rate: The weighted average operating rate across the country is 74.90%, down 3.81 percentage points; the operating rate in East China is 80.65%, unchanged; the operating rate in Shandong is 68.71%, down 2.39 percentage points; the operating rate in Southwest China is 44.06%, down 1.22 percentage points; the operating rate in Northwest China is 81.54%, down 3.55 percentage points [8]. - Inventory situation: The inventory at East China ports is 57.26 million tons, an increase of 0.93 million tons; the inventory at South China ports is 36.16 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in various maintenance states, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and shutdown due to reasons such as equipment failure and limited gas supply [59]. - Overseas plants: Some overseas methanol plants, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United States, etc., have different operating conditions, including normal operation, restarting, and undergoing maintenance [60]. - Olefin plants: Olefin plants in different regions such as the Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and Northeast also have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and planned production increases [61].