碳酸锂市场周报：供给放缓需求回暖，锂价或将有所支撑-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market's fundamentals may show a situation where the supply growth rate converges and demand gradually recovers. The price of lithium carbonate may be supported. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control risks, and also to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [7][8][61] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change rate of - 2.25% and an amplitude of 7.37%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 77,180 yuan/ton [7] - Macro Environment: The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand, create a fair competition environment, and support enterprises in innovation and employment [7] - Fundamentals: Overseas miners may hold back supply and raise prices, and domestic mining disturbances will affect raw material supply, keeping lithium ore prices firm. High ore prices provide cost support for lithium prices. Given the current high supply and inventory pressure, the supply growth rate of lithium carbonate may slow down. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, downstream demand for replenishment will increase [7] - Strategy Suggestion: Conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control trading rhythm to manage risks [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of August 29, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 77,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,780 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 740 yuan/ton [14] - Spot Price: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,470 yuan/ton [20] 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 950 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1385, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [24] - Lithium Mica: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 175 yuan/ton [29] 3.4 Industry Supply and Demand - Supply Side: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decrease of 21.77% month - on - month and 42.67% year - on - year. The monthly production was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% month - on - month and 14.36% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a decrease of 5% month - on - month and 32% year - on - year [34] - Demand Side - Intermediate Products: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of July 2025, the monthly production of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% month - on - month and 44.16% year - on - year [37] - Cathode Materials: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained flat, while the prices of ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate decreased. The production of lithium iron phosphate, electrolyte, ternary materials, and lithium cobaltate increased, while the production of lithium manganate decreased [37][42][45][50][53] - New Energy Vehicles: As of July 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly production was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%; the sales volume was 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [55][60] 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.04, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to bet on increased volatility and construct a long straddle option [63]